Let’s see
China exports roughly around 12.50% of its total exports to the US markets
Of this nearly 7.50% consist of finished products owned in full or in part by American companies and brands
Brands like Bosch and many others design their tools in US but have them made in China and then slapped with a label of their own
American companies make upto 80% – 200% markup on these made in China products
So if these exports are restricted, it will cost China jobs and business losses but significantly more loss to the US in terms of hitting small businesses and retail customers and consumption
However US markets have too much reliance on Chinese Goods with 80% of them having NO OTHER SOURCE
- Pharma APIs for Patent Drugs (86%)
- Chips (>= 100 nm) (78%)
- Electronic Circuits (77%)
- Toys (76%)
- Low Cost Goods (58%)
- Consumer Electronics (83% – Made in China, 37% – Chinese Brands)
- Low cost machinery (49%)
- Industrial Machinery (61%)
- Drone parts (88%)
- Cranes (Small, Industrial) (63%)
- EV Batteries (48%)
- Smartphone Accessories (93%)
- Low Cost Medical Equipment (35%)
- Industrial Chemicals (72%)
- Refined Rare Earth Blocks (91%) – Banned/Restricted
- Aerospace Parts (31%)
- Airline Parts (41%)
- Agricultural Machinery Parts for Assembly (64%)
- Smartphones (71%)
- Refined Lithium & Graphite (74%)
Basically even Made in US products are assembled with Chinese machinery and Chinese parts
Let’s see the second biggest suppliers for each
- Pharma APIs for Patent Drugs – Switzerland (8.7%)
- Chips (>= 100 nm) – Taiwan (13%)
- Electronic Circuits – Taiwan (14%)
- Toys – Vietnam (11%)
- Low Cost Goods – Vietnam (24%)
- Consumer Electronics – India (10.8%)
- Low cost machinery – India (18%)
- Industrial Machinery – Mexico (23%)
- Drone parts – France (8%)
- Cranes (Small, Industrial) – Japan (17%)
- EV Batteries – South Korea (25%)
- Smartphone Accessories – Vietnam (4%)
- Low Cost Medical Equipment – Vietnam (30%)
- Industrial Chemicals – Bangladesh (21%)
- Refined Rare Earth Blocks – Canada (4%)
- Aerospace Parts – Canada (22%) [Russian Exports have formally been cut off ]
- Airline Parts- Germany (21%)
- Agricultural Machinery Parts for Assembly – Mexico (26%)
- Smartphones – India (12%)
- Refined Lithium and Graphite – Canada & Australia (8% each)
Of these many suppliers in Mexico and Vietnam are Chinese
So practically there is NO AREA where any import substitution is possible in the near future or even in the next 10 years if you start investing heavily into manufacturing which nobody will knowing Trump is mercurial as hell and he has only 4 years maximum
Remember Russia?
Russia would have folded completely had it not been for China and it’s limitless Goods and import substitution
China took on all of Europe and US and their entire supply chain and kept the Russian economy ticking very comfortably
How the Americans would handle import substitution is a huge question mark?
Under a Rational Sane President, this would be a HUGE CHALLENGE
Under an 80 year old megalomaniac – it is an Impossibility
China will have temporary pain but US will have a permanent blow which would mark another step to the decline and the end.
