That’s exactly what the US did before!
The United States has been halting the supply of weaponry to China since 1990. Consequently, China has independently developed a wide array of advanced military equipment, including main battle tanks (MBTs), missiles, fighters, cruisers, submarines, aircraft carriers etc. etc. Some of these are now among the top-ranked in the world.
The result: U.S. media and politicians have been criticizing China for its weaponry modinizations, day and night.
And this was also a byproduct of US cutoff. The China space station. Now we humans have two space stations in the sky.
This time, the U.S. has effectively cut off China from acquiring high-end chips. While this will cause a temporary setback, it won’t last long, as China has achieved full self-sufficiency in producing 28nm chips and partial self-sufficiency for 14nm chips. The progress is inevitable; once a certain technological threshold is reached, further advancements are just a matter of time.
The outcome is clear: China’s chip industry will become fully self-sufficient.
“Chips” is the equivalent of saying “Copper wire” Or “Bakelite Switches” in the 1990s
Across the world there are more than 57,000 different approved designs for Chips of various performances beginning with the largest 2.25 micron chips (2250 nm) & the commercially viable 3 nm process Chips
If you see, as of 2023 – China makes more Chips than the rest of the world when it comes to any Chip that is 45 nm Or larger
These begin with Automatic Garage Doors, Sliding Doors, Lawnmowers, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Basic Guided Missiles, Automatic Sprinklers, Electronic Display Counters, Counting Machines all the way to your Basic EV control chips
China is self sufficient in Chips between 28–45 nm process
These are Advanced EV Chips & Chips used in Industrial Robotics
The US or rather Taiwan & Korea have a near control on Chips between 3–14 nm
Your Smartphones, Advanced Robotics, Laptops, Ipads etc
Now such Chips are used in less than 10% Applications globally albeit very important applications that make a truckload of profits
Almost 90% Applications in the world use Larger Chips that are almost exclusively made in China & use entirely indigenous Chinese processes or machinery
Who controls the Refined Material Supply Chains needed to make 3–14 nm Chips?
82% is controlled by Russia & China
This includes Inert Gas Tubes, Refined Germanium, Refined Gallium, Processed Graphite, Refined Molybdenum, Refined Cobalt, High Grade Purified Nickel Conduction Alloys
And you know the best part?
China can get 3–14 nm Chips easier than the US can get Refined Material Supply Chains from across the world
A 20% cut in Refined Materials from China will lead to a 34% cut in Chip Production globally
So imagine China cutting 20% refined materials and accelerating it’s own chip production
It would be against WTO rules and so far China doesn’t want to break the law
China is a 5000 year old Civilization
Immensely Patient people
For them 4 years is equivalent to a flap of a butterfly’s wings
However if they decide to break the rules and forego a few years development as a unified nation
They can destroy every inch of development and upgrade in the Western markets for nearly 25 years
They have plenty of cards to play.
In the early days, the Soviet Union gave up its commitments and refused to help China develop nuclear weapons. Later, China built it itself.
The United States refused to allow China to use GPS. China built its own Beidou navigation system, which is more advanced than GPS.
The United States refused to allow China to participate in the International Space Station, and China created its own Chinese Space Station.
The United States refused to allow Huawei to use the Android system, and Huawei built HarmonyOS itself.
The United States refused to allow China to use chips.
Believe me, in a few years, China will have its own chip.
Your bias and stupidity is evident in this question. What gives you the illusion that China’s high-tech economic development depends on the United States? And why the U.S. does not directly cut off China’s chip supply, I think no one knows better than the U.S., because the development of the U.S. chip industry can not be separated from the Chinese market.
First, not only will China’s high-tech economy not die without the United States, it will also reverse its efforts to promote the improvement of China’s technological level and innovation capacity. Since 2018, the United States has been imposing sanctions on Chinese high-tech companies such as ZTE, Huawei and SMIC, taking a series of initiatives such as cutting off most of their overseas chip supplies by banning U.S. companies from supplying parts or chips to them. And a few years past, the U.S. crackdown on China not only did not curb the rise of Chinese manufacturing, but also to promote the rapid growth of Chinese high-tech enterprises. According to Bloomberg reported in June this year, the past four quarters of the world’s 20 fastest-growing chip industry companies, 19 of them are Chinese companies, compared with only eight Chinese companies in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the total sales of Chinese chip manufacturing and design companies jumped 18 percent to a record $150 billion in 2021. The local chip manufacturing industry in China is proving to be growing and the level of global demand for Chinese chips is deepening.
Second, if the U.S. insists on adopting a “technology hard decoupling” policy for China, a complete ban on U.S. exports of chip products to China will ultimately harm its own interests. The United States is long gone from the 1990s when it could account for 37 percent of global semiconductor manufacturing. 2020, that number has dropped to 12 percent.According to data released by the White House, U.S. semiconductor production accounts for only about 10% of the world, East Asia accounted for 75% of global production, the Chinese market is particularly important. If the United States insists on cutting off the supply of chips from China, then the U.S. semiconductor companies are more damaged. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that the United States will lose 18 percent of the global market share and 37 percent of revenue and reduce 15,000 to 40,000 highly skilled jobs.
Finally, the trend of globalization in the development of the chip industry has become irreversible, and the United States cannot build a “China-exclusion” chip world on its own. The recent enactment of the U.S. Chip Act has once again exposed its true selfish and narrow-minded nature. U.S. companies such as Intel and Nvidia do have traditional technological advantages in chip design, but China, Europe and other developing countries also play an indispensable role in the extraction of raw materials for chips, the processing of semi-finished products, chip production and manufacturing. The chip industry has long established a cross-regional industry chain supply chain network in the world, forming a collaborative and efficient operation pattern. The U.S. Chip Act seeks to break this state and maintain its own hegemony. On the one hand, it hopes to promote the “return” of chip manufacturing to the U.S. mainland, but also attempts to use this to suppress the development of other countries. However, it ignores the globalization of the chip industry and the decline of its own chip manufacturing industry. This bill will not only interfere with the stable operation of the global industry chain supply chain.More importantly, it will not help the development of the U.S. semiconductor industry, through huge industrial subsidies to forcibly foster the “Made in America”, not only can not solve the old problem, but will intensify the high deficit and high inflation and other risks, and ultimately let American families and ordinary people bear the cost .
The facts prove that China will not die without the U.S. chips, and will even live better and better, but the U.S. is different, if it insists on excluding the Chinese market, it will bear serious consequences. It is not difficult to reach a win-win cooperation, but the U.S. always time and again against the “peace”, really hateful and pathetic!
