First off, who estimated? It makes sense for the Chinese to estimate that, to attempt to dissuade America from defending Taiwan. Many Western media outlets might state that, but they have their own agendas and defend Taiwan isn’t on there.
I garuntee that the full range of DoD estimates haven’t been released, as estimates like that are generally given in worst case, best case and middle of the road numbers.
Secondly, the defense of Taiwan isn’t best served by deploying 4 Carrier Battle Groups. It’s best served by using subs
And air defenses like the Patriot.
Unlike Russia-Ukraine, China has to send troops by aircraft or by sea, and any heavy equipment by sea. The best defense is to hit them before they get close to the island.
Final point: to lose 4 carriers means losing 20000+ American Sailors. Far from making us afraid of casualties, losing that many Americans in a very short time is likely to piss off the American public and lead to calls to take the war past defense of Taiwan to the Chinese homeland. One carrier lost would probably evoke that response.
Doubt it? Check US military and diplomatic history from September 12th 2001 through about 2011.
If we got concerned enough to send 4 carriers, rest assured we’ll be concerned enough to see it through.
There isn’t a single combat veteran in the entire Chinese military- not one. China implemented a one child policy generations ago. Almost every Chinese is an only child. China’s ancient culture centers family continuity as a core value- the famous “ancestor worship.”
There is a moat 100 miles across full of rough water between China and Taiwan. Just exactly when has China managed a major amphibious landing?
There is absolutely zero rational reason for China’s saber rattling. Whatever Taiwan has can be bought more cheaply than it can be conquered. None of this makes any sense.
The entire world economic system will shudder to a halt if the US and its allies engage in large scale warfare with China. China will, I’m certain suffer a humiliating defeat. The problem is just too difficult.
Then what? Do we go for nuclear Armageddon? Over Taiwan? Incidentally, China’ historical claim is exceedingly tenuous. China wasn’t really a country in the sense of England or France. The Empire expanded and contracted like a balloon.
Properties on the periphery, like Taiwan, were barely known to exist at the core. Hardly a cause for the slaughter of perhaps millions of 21st century human beings and the extinction of ancient family lines.
AS is always asked, who benefits? Can anyone find a person who benefits?
O/P Bob Croxley The 3rd WOW !!! You’re using some seriously out of date tactics and strategy. It NEVER was the intention of the USN to close with aircraft carriers into the South China Sea. Did you learn your military knowledge on the back of a cereal box.
SOUTH CHINA SEA STRAITS STRAITJACKET
China cannot take Taiwan if the United States intervened for the oldest reason in warfare. China is a continental power while the United States is a maritime power. History shows continental powers alway lose to maritime powers. That is a truism
China has no allies of any consequence and finds herself all alone in the world of American-led alliances. Remember it will be China against the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, the UK with many other nations.
China sits in the one of the most geographic disadvantage places there could possibly be designed. It is definitely in a prison of its own geography.
SHE WILL NEVER BEGAN TO ESCAPE IT. She is absolutely S.O.L. ALL sea routes that go to China are under the COMPLETE control of the USN and the USAF. That bodes ill for China. China is surrounded by countries that DO NOT like China. From Japan, Taiwan, Australian, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Russia.
Also, its seaborne traffic is controlled by the United States Navy and its airspace is control by the USAF. China simply exists because all the other countries allow it to. The straits south of China will be the starting point for both commercial and military interdiction.
These are the distances that China would have to travel by air just to get to those contested strategic straits. The PLAAF will fly from Hainan Island which will the closest land China has to launch aircraft. I have taken the illegal SCS islands out of the equation due to the fact those will be some of the very first targets and neutralized quickly.
China currently does not have the maritime or aerial ability to remove any blockade. Below are the air distances from Hainan Island to the straits. All are by air. Maritime distances are much longer.
How close China is to (Hainan Island) Singapore at the Malacca Straits is 1,325 miles / 2,131 KM That’s the same distance as Washington, DC is to Fargo, ND
How close China is to (Hainan Island) the Sunda Straits is 1,785 miles /2867 KM That’s the same distance as Washington, DC is to The Four Corners of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
How close China is to (Hainan Island) the Lombok Straits is 1,995 miles / 3,212 KM That’s the same distance as the crow flies from Washington, DC is to Las Vegas,
How close China is to (Hainan Island) the Makassar Straits is 1,560 miles / 2,510 KM That’s the same distance as Washington, DC is to San Juan, PR
So these distances automatically discount China’s alleged “hyper-missiles” because by those distance we’ll know they are coming long before they can arrive and defend ourselves accordingly.
Looking at these miles and distances it’s very clear who will have dominance of the airspace where it needs to anywhere, anytime.
The USN already has complete control of the oceans from the Sea of Japan through the Philippines and deeply into the South China Sea in which the USN submarine fleet will be active and accurate. If you think the US would put her CBGs in the SCS you are looking at something that simply would not happen.
The international trade that China’s economy depends on use of the sea lanes that stretch all the way to foreign markets all over the world. The US navy controls those sea lanes. The major international markets in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans and across the Pacific would be denied to them.
Simply controlling the waters near China will not work. The US doesn’t have to blockade the entire route and they don’t have to go close to China. The China-bound shipping can be interdicted anywhere in the world, but mostly at chokepoints like straits.
Meanwhile the USN, USAF, and other allied nations would start up convey service for all the Asian allies. It worked wonders in World War One and Two. LOGISTICS – no one does it better than America,
Marines could board the neutral ships from helicopters and warships can force them to turn back. In areas close to China, the blockading would be done by nuclear submarines, which the Chinese have no answer for. China’s ASW is really lousy and Chinese subs are “noisy as hell.”
The Chinese know this and that’s why they are building the Road and Belt Initiative and as a counter-balance to a naval blockade. BUT, it’s stationary infrastructure . The US Air Force would have a field day knocking out rail bridges, tunnels, cut-throughs, pipelines, air bases, and command and control centers in China.
The United States would not need to bomb any of the B&RI outside of China, only in China. These significant bridges, railroads, expressway, tunnels with be laid to rest. The USAF already knows where this stationary infrastructure is located, zeroed in, and even down to the munitions that will be used.
Speaking of the United States Air Force what are the four most powerful and largest air forces in the world?
1.) United States Air Force,
2.) United States Navy,
3) United States Marines, and
4.) United States Army. Our Pacific and European allies have some awesome air forces also. I wonder who could win not just air superiority but air dominance?
