Israel launched a shock and awe attack on Iran
It began with an online attack that jammed the Iranian Air Defense Encryption completely and rendered the AD useless for many hours
Meanwhile Israelis who had more than 2000 Drones smuggled into Iran launched them over key targets to assassinate Key Figures while F-35s rose from Iraq and Jordan and fired missiles on key targets inside Iran aimed at hitting the nuclear facilities
At the same time, Agents of US and Israel spread MASS PANIC through Chatbots across Iranian Social Media and likely would have activated their own agents within Iran to cause protests and inspire a people’s revolution
Iran was lulled into a false sense of security by Trump and they simply trusted the US and their Arab neighbors
However Iran reset their Air Defenses in the night and now they are operational
Iran launched 7 waves of a combination of ballistics, decoys and hypersonics and caused massive damage in Tel Aviv across the past two days
On the third day of the conflict between Israel and Iran, it became obvious that the operation, which in the first hours seemed like a demonstration of Israel’s total control and technological superiority (not least due to media operations and statements that all targets had been hit), was entering a phase of protracted confrontation, where the IDF was losing the element of surprise and was forced to switch to a fight of attrition. The initial shock of the Israeli strikes – the elimination of generals, the destruction of nuclear infrastructure, the disabling of air defence positions and launchers , was real.
But upon closer examination, it became clear that the IRGC structure, although hit, had survived. The destruction of such figures as Brigadier General Mahdi Rabbani and Deputy Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Gholamreza Mehrabi, seriously affected coordination, but the vertical managed to reorganise in less than a day, and retaliatory measures began.
This indicates the presence of a ready-made system of command duplication, autonomous headquarters and pre-prepared crisis protocols.
Israel, in turn, is rebuilding its strike concept. The first day was spent betting on the effect of disarmament and destruction of symbolic nodes. Now the IDF’s focus is shifting to systemic military work: strikes on warehouses, bases, and the IRGC infrastructure in the west of the country, in the Kermanshah region, where missile units and supply logistics are concentrated. This suggests that the strategic campaign to quickly “zero out” Iran has failed, and the second stage has begun – the exhausting one.
The key question is: Does Israel have enough resources to conduct such a campaign alone?
The third day is the point after which logistical limitations, primarily for aviation, and the tension in combat control begin to have an effect. So far, there has been no official statement about a request for support from the United States, but all signs of preparation for such an appeal are already on the surface.
Israel has not yet lost, but has not won. Iran has not lost, but it has not responded in a way that would calm Israel down.
Now the war has entered a phase where the winner will not be the one who strikes the first or most beautiful blow, but the one who can finish off the enemy and not run out of steam himself. And here, for the first time in the operation, Israel has a point of serious tension – the need to request external assistance.
And if the US does not respond or drags it out – the entire campaign will acquire a different political geometry.
Well, bibi is 75, and physically ill. He is a dead man walking, and doesn’t have much time left in this world. He is surviving on iron will and makeup for the cameras, as well as the finest medical care money can buy.
And he is making decisions exactly like how a dying man would, putting the affairs of his nation in order before he departs.
Or in other words, tying up loose ends for the next generation.
Unfortunately, these are bet the country’s long term future moves. Win and the Israeli notion of security will reassure the nation somewhat. But lose, and Israel will not be able to pull escalation dominance in the middle east again.
Bibi knows Israel needs NATO to win against Iran. The Iranian counterattack is not only anticipated, but desired because this is where bibi can tell NATO “Jews are dying in the second holocaust. Help us bring the fight to Iran or we’ll be forced to pursue the Samson Option”.
Yes it is perverse but bibi will rather ask for forgiveness six feet under rather than take the foot off genocide and overreach.
After all, death awaits him, either way.
