“Today marks 6 months of the Kursk operation. With our active operations on Russian territory, we have brought the war home to Russia. That is where they must feel what war truly means. And they do,” stated President Zelenskyy.
The Ukrainian forces “have shown the world that, even with limited resources, we can act decisively, unexpectedly, and effectively,” highlighted Zelenskyy.
He pointed out the most important aspects of the Kursk operation:
- “We continue to expose Russia’s bluff for what it is.”
- “We are defending our cities — Sumy and Kharkiv — and significantly increasing our exchange fund.”
- ”Hundreds of Russian soldiers are now in our captivity — soldiers we will change to bring Ukrainians home from Russian prisons.”
- “Among the captured are also North Korean soldiers — they were wounded in battle, with severe injuries, and are now receiving medical treatment. Their presence is undeniable proof that Putin has drawn yet another country into this war — North Korea — and is training them in modern warfare.”
All this highlights “how crucial it is to stop Russia now, so that there is no need to fight in years to come.”
The Kursk operation is the jewel of the Ukrainian military achievements in this war.
Not only they managed to push the enemy away from Kyiv and Kherson, liberating around 7% of the Ukrainian territory, but also managed to show that the Russian army can be beaten on their own territory.
Russia isn’t a military power it pretends to be.
It shouldn’t be able to dictate its conditions to Europe and Europeans.
Right now?
It is going as planned according to Zelenskyy.
Perhaps better than planned.
There are now multiple incursions into Russia by Ukraine.
Russia is moving more troops from Donbas.
Sanctions are impacting the Russian economy.
Russia cannot supply its soldiers with weapons necessary to fight.
Russia is having to buy weapons and ammunition from the likes of North Korea and Iran.
Morale is high for Ukraine.
Putin’s credibility is at a nadir.
He told Russians their lives would be unaffected.
And Kyiv would be taken in three days.
Now he is telling them occupation by Ukraine is the new normal.
It’s still too early for a final assessment of this operation. Furthermore, the information we have from both sides is sparse.
Nevertheless, we can make a few reasonable assumptions:
- The Ukrainians won’t be easily removed from the territory they’ve gained in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Russia would likely need to deploy at least another 50,000 to 100,000 troops to launch a serious counteroffensive against them.
- The first Russian attempt to regain some of their lost territory has utterly failed. It was far too small in scale. As they have done many times before, the Russians underestimated their enemy. The recent destruction of two large Russian ammunition depots by Ukrainian drone strikes will further hamper Russia’s efforts.
In short: the Ukrainians are there to stay, at least until next spring.
Regarding Ukraine’s objective of using the Kursk operation to draw Russian troops away from the Donbas, this has been, at least, a partial success:
- There’s information that Russia is moving more and more of its units to Kursk. Most of these troops come from Donetsk.
- This will undoubtedly weaken Russia’s lines in Donbas and we already see small but significant Ukrainian gains in several frontline sectors (Toretsk, Kupyansk). Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are weakened.
- In addition, Ukraine was able to stabilize the badly threatened Pokrovsk frontline. Many experts had predicted that the strategically important city of Pokrovsk would fall by mid-September, but this has not happened.
The Ukrainian Kursk operation certainly isn’t the full success that some pro-Ukrainian voices want us to believe. On the other hand, military operations rarely achieve all their objectives. Considering the circumstances (lack of personnel and artillery ammunition), the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have done an outstanding job.
I’m confident that they will continue to do so.
