The Polish military was comparable to the pre-2022 Ukrainian military in size.
Currently, wartime Ukraine has a significant numerical advantage. The Polish have the equipment and technology that Ukraine wishes they had.
The Polish government has increased military spreading significantly since 2022. In short Ukraine has the numbers, experience and Poland has the equipment.
It’s hard to compare.
Poland is a country at peace (relatively). Ukraine is a country at war. Moreover, it has been at war with Russia for the last 8 years. Plenty of time to prepare for large scale operations.
Ukrainian military forces are obviously superior in numbers. All men between 18 and 60 are forbidden from leaving the country. They can be conscripted at any time. Ukrainian goal is to have a one million army. Ukrainian volunteers fight also a guerrilla war on territories occupied by the Russians.
For comparison, there is no compulsory conscription in Poland, military service is voluntary, military forces number about 100.000 people and are in the process of enlargement. The governments wants them at the level of 300.000 in the future.
Polish military forces are undoubtedly better trained, they adhere to the NATO standards. They had also more military experience, due to involvement in Iraq and then in Afghanistan. But now the Ukrainians gain military experience on a massive scale. What’s more, Polish military experience regards hybrid warfare in a far away country, while Ukrainian military experience pertains to fighting a stronger opponent in a classic war in European theater. So it’s Ukrainian experience which is much more relevant.
Polish military forces have better weaponry and equipment. But now military aid from all over the world comes to Ukraine. It has already received HIMARS rocket launchers and was able to military test them against the Russians, while Poland has to wait years for delivery of these launchers. Soon Ukraine will be able to use long range rockets, as well as long range ammunition for howitzers, while Poland didn’t even purchase them yet. Poland has to pay a lot of money for every Javelin system while Ukraine receives tens of thousands of them for free. I don’t say that it‘s unjust and should stop, I fully support giving military aid to Ukraine. I only want to point out that all of this aid makes comparisons between Polish and Ukrainian military forces very hard to be properly adjusted.
What’s more, a lot of military aid to Ukraine comes from Poland. For example excellent MANPADS “Piorun’ given to Ukraine by the hundreds. The Polish factory making them works three shifts day and night to produce them for Ukraine, instead of making them for Polish military forces. Again – fully understandable, but makes comparing the two countries very difficult. Poland gave to Ukraine 18 of it’s top notch self-propelled howitzers Krab. It’s a gain for Ukraine, a loss for Poland, similar with tanks and armored fighting vehicles – we gave about 250 of them, we will probably give another 200 or so.
And again – I don’t complain. Did you see videos from Vinnitsa? A peaceful town, far away from the frontline. People walking, riding bicycles, strolling with children. Suddenly…explosions, violent death, destruction and suffering.
If we don’t want such scenes in Białystok, we have to continue our support and military aid to Ukraine. Every eliminated Russian soldier in this war is one less man to worry about. Every Russian weapon destroyed is one less to attack Poland.
My point is that Polish and Ukrainian military forces are on completely different levels of engagements, what’s more, Polish military forces support our Ukrainian allies with its own weapons and equipment. This makes all the comparisons of military potential between the two countries a difficult to make.
As far is we believe that NATO’s Article 5. is not dead letter, the question is irrelevant. A Polish-Ukrainian conflict is nearly impossible, Poland is unlikely to launch an operation against Russia on her own and if Russia does this, the question turns into “how do the USA’s+Canada’s+the UK’s+France’s+…..+Albania’s” military forces compare to Russia’s. So the question would make sense as much as we try to guess how Poland could resist on her own a Russian aggression, extrapolating from her strength relative to Ukraine’s and come to conclusions based on that. However, this is a scenario which could be realistic only after POTUS Trump successfully dismantles NATO as a credible deterrent.
