Let’s put it this way.

Ukraine in orange, Iraq in green

Back in 2003, USA (with UK) invaded Iraq. It had fairly modern weaponry, a large mobilized army that was prepared to face the invasion. USA was fighting on the other side of the world, Saudi Arabia prohibited the use of their territory and Turkey didn’t want to join the coalition, so all the forces were coming in from Kuwait.

Iraqis knew exactly where Americans were coming from and had ample time to prepare. Americans were fighting almost 10,000 km from their home.

The war lasted six weeks and took fewer than 200 coalition lives, 139 Americans and 33 British soldiers died, approximately 600 were wounded. Saddam was removed from power and a new government installed. You can quibble about what happened later, the army part was done flawlessly.

Back in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine too had some modern weaponry, but was caught by surprise. No one in Ukraine thought Russia would launch the invasion, it would be outright silly. Russia was fighting on their border, within 400 km of Moscow even and invaded not only through Russia, but through Belarus as well, driving hard for Kyiv.

Ukraine had only about 24 hours to prepare, that’s when Ukrainian high command realized the Western intelligence was right.

The war is now 2.5 years old. Russian casualties are in hundreds of thousands. The armored fist of their army is no more, they’re making do with old Soviet-era weaponry and barely trained recruits. They lost dozens of planes, thousands of tanks and haven’t yet captured a single provincial capital – save for Kherson, which they lost back to Ukrainians.

The few towns they managed to capture despite fierce resistance are now smoldering ruins. Ukrainian forces occupy a part of Russia and are striking deep inside Russia with drones and saboteurs.

A private army rebelled and drove to Moscow, it was only stopped by the fact their commander was even stupider than he looked (and he looked very stupid).

Since the beginning of the summer Russians lost more men each day than Americans and the British lost to bring down Saddam Hussein in 6 weeks, while fighting on the other side of the world. In fact they lose about twice as many men each day these days, thanks to fierce Ukrainian offensive.

I think this showcases the differences quite well. It’s rather stark.

There is one specific comparison, and it’s very much a key relevant comparison, that actually sums up the difference rather well.

This is the F-35 –

One of the most capable warbirds ever made, a fifth generation fighter.

This is the SU-57 –

Supposedly a fifth gen fighter according to Russia and their fanboys. Certainly this is the answer Russia offers to the F-35(as far as actually produced planes, their vaporware wunder weapons don’t count as they don’t exist yet, if they ever will).

You don’t want bias, so I’ll skip opinions about which is the better plane, and stick to objective numbers relevant to military strength… Russia has 14 – that’s fourteen – Su-57s and the US currently produces about that many F-35s *per month*(13 per month).

The US currently has about 630 of them, and that number continues to grow rapidly, with a target of having about 2500 of them within the next 16 years. If Russia ever makes even another 14 of them given what dysfunctional corruption they’ve sunken into, I will be surprised.

So even if you buy every last bit of bullshit the fanboys claim about the Su-57 being a superior fighter, the US currently has 42 F-35s for every one Su-57 in existence, a ratio that continues to grow.

And not even the most rosy assessments of the Su-57s capabilities paint it as something that can achieve even a 2 to 1 kill ratio against an F-35, let alone a 42 to 1, the conversation of its alleged superiority is always in a 1 to 1 matchup.

And that right there is a perfect example of the gap between the US military strength and Russia’s.

---

The current military gap between the USA and Russia, quite depends on which aspect. To honestly say that a country has military power as a single static value doesn’t make sense, like wise, simply pointing to a past operation as an anecdote is a fallacy, and only marginally gives an indication of what experience shapes the ideas of the respective military.

Let’s start with the highest level of capability. Russia and USA are nuclear superpowers, no matter what people claim about them otherwise. They are peerless in their ability to destroy the world, both maintain thousands of nuclear warheads and delivery systems. Even China only maintains 10% of the warheads of either Russia or USA. In this respect there is no gap, and both nations are peerless.

If we talk about projection power, the USA is the only true superpower and peerless in their ability to deploy their air and naval forces around the world, usually for influence and punitive actions. Russia is a regional power, they can project only with the consent of host countries, or within their immediate region, such as Ukraine and Georgia, but the very idea that Russia could militarily influence anything in for example South America is close to unthinkable.

In terms of actual naval power, the US Navy is almost certainly the most powerful navy in the world, even with Chinese naval power reaching new heights, it is still a regional and very inexperienced navy, while the Russian navy is more experienced, it is under funded.

The US navy is very experienced, very well equipped, and very well funded. It is a very well organized US military arm and the basis for most of it’s power.

In terms of air power, the US also has a clear edge. The US maintains the only large fleet of stealth aircraft, the largest fleet of AWACS, the only truly capable carrier based air force, as well as an overall advantage in numbers.

However, the Russian air force is no joke, they are highly capable and have a large percentage of modern aircraft, what they lack in stealth they make up for in advanced missiles and carriers for them notably the MiG-31 with Kinzhal air to ground missiles, and R-37M ultra-long range AA missiles, both have proved highly effective in a near peer conflict.

The Russian air force also have a lot of experience fighting in high ECM and high AA environments, which no US pilot can claim, as the enemies of the US rarely have any air defense at all, and they tend to fly their planes like AA missiles barely exist. The gap here might not be as great as one might think.

In terms of Army, the Russians maintain a larger force than the US, additionally, the US are facing very serious problems with manpower, being an all volunteer army, Russian shortages can easily be fixed with conscription, and they maintain a reserve more than 10 times the size of the USA.

As we can see from current conflicts, in a serious war, the ability to replenish casualties is very important, and the USA does not have this nearly to the same extent.

Additionally, the Russian ground forces are now staffed by experienced officers and troops, who know how to conduct trench warfare and urban warfare on the modern battlefield against near peer adversaries. Again, no soldier in the US army can claim the same. The equipment of the Russian army is also rapidly adapting to the realities of modern warfare.

Everyone laughed at the Russian cope cages in the beginning of the war, no one is laughing now. The Russian tactic for drones was correct, and everyone who is facing drones now copies the Russians, not the other way around, just ask the Israeli cope cages.

Finally, the Russian ground forces have a very large, and very experienced and successful drone corps, which is now integrated at company to battalion level which includes an electronic warfare anti drone component.

This is not a small advantage, and without a doubt this is going to be an essential part of any modern army in the very near future, but western militarizes including the USA are only barely beginning to do something like what the Russians already have in terms of drones.

In short, in terms of ground forces, the Russian army is probably ahead of the USA and this is the area with the biggest difference in experience and innovation.

In summary, this is my opinion:

Nuclear, the two forces have parity
Projection power the US has peerless lead over Russia
Naval forces the US has a significant lead over Russia
Air force, the US has a lead over Russia
Army, Russia has a significant lead over the USA