In 1986 I was stationed in W Germany, on a M1 tank, in 1987 I traded that M1 for a M1A1. But while I was there I spent a little time studying the “enemy”. This was the Warsaw Pact military, the largest, most powerful elements were the Soviet army the Yugoslavian and the E German army’s, along with many much smaller militaries.
The current Russian military is just a pale shadow of what the USSR had and Russia has almost none of the other warsaw pact countries at their beck and call these days. But the following is what I witnessed in the late 80s.
NATO had about 20% more soldiers than the Warsaw pact did.
NATO had slightly more tanks than the Warsaw pact
NATO had a lot more combat aircraft than the Warsaw pact
From a navy point of view the Warsaw pact really had no navy, the USSR had a fair amount of submarines, their primary mission was to reduce the amount of aid coming from North America to Europe, but the US and British Navy’s were so massively overpowering its not likely the Soviet subs would do much.
The Warsaw pact had a huge amount of artillery, much more than NATO.
All the equipment of the Warsaw pact was 2nd rate at best compared to NATO equipment. That’s tanks, artillery, IFV’s and aircraft.
No Warsaw pact military trained much at all, training is expensive, No part of the Warsaw pact had much money, especially compared to NATO (NATO had well over 1/2 the money in the world).
The Warsaw pact was incapable of providing any logistical support, especially in the face of opposition. If the war last more than a week the Warsaw pact soldiers would be starving with no ammo or fuel. The USSR never had any logistical system to speak of, even during WWII the US and Canada provided almost 100% of the USSR’s logistics.
The army of the USSR was oddly organized, they had no equivalent of the western NCO. The NCO is the guy that instills discipline, conducts training, performs maintenance, leads the men in combat. Takes over when the officers are hurt or killed.
This was at the peak of the Warsaw pact’s power, without using nukes they wouldn’t last a week against NATO.
Now fast forward to today.
The Warsaw pact and even the USSR are gone, what Remains in Russia is a tiny portion of what they had in the 80’s
The Russian equipment is almost identical to what they used in the 80’s. Better missiles and slightly better (but far fewer) combat aircraft. But tanks, Ifv’s and artillery really haven’t changed at all.
They still can’t afford to train their men.
They still have nothing like an NCO.
They still have no logistic system. (the equation on this is real simple – no logistics = no win)
NATO militaries during this time have gotten smaller, but a couple of the NATO nations train constantly (primarily the US and Britain)
The equipment has been constantly upgraded and/or replaced by newer stuff.
Russia has a smaller entire military than just the US army, then there is the rest of the US military and the militaries of the all the other NATO nations.
The logistics of NATO (mostly the US) can move anything, anywhere in the world, and quickly at that.
So somehow I have some doubts that Russia will even try anything anytime soon, Anyway the entire Russian military is tied up in the Ukraine.
Edit: this in no way is saying that NATO can invade and take over Russia, To invade and take over any major nation is virtually impossible. This applies to Russia as well, if Russia was to attempt to invade any part of NATO it would be disastrous for Russia. For NATO to invade any part of Russia would be disastrous. This is not even accounting for nukes. If you combine all the armies of NATO it would be less than 4 million soldiers, send that up against a nation with a population 138 million??? They could be armed with KFC sporks and still win.
Edit: I keep receiving comments about how Yugoslavia were not Warsaw pact, this is true, they were not Warsaw pact.
But:
The Yugoslavian military was equipped with Soviet equipment, they used Soviet tactics, they did what little training they did with the Soviet military (no eastern block nation trained much). the Yugoslavian government was modeled on the Soviet Unions and the Yugoslavian economy was very closely tied to the Soviet Union. This was the state of every Warsaw Pact nation. So while Yugoslavia was not Warsaw Pact, they might as well have been.
On February 17, 2024, the Russian army captured the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after a four-month-long battle.
Today, almost one year later, and after having constantly thrown tens of thousands of soldiers, hundreds of tanks, and thousands of armored vehicles into battle (where they were subsequently lost), the Russians have advanced a mere thirty kilometers.
The Russians lack the logistics for any kind of combat operation that is not directed against a small nation but a peer enemy and that takes longer than just a couple of days.
I won’t even start to evaluate the poor training of their troops, the corruption, or the abysmal leadership qualities of the Russian officer corps. Even if they were to somehow overcome these problems (which is highly unlikely), they would still be no match for NATO.
This is why they constantly threaten the West with nuclear weapons. The Russians do not possess any credible conventional deterrent. They are like the schoolyard bully who, after picking a fight that he quickly started to lose, threatens to call his daddy to intervene on his behalf.
It’s rather pathetic.
Not sure which NATO you mean, probably the Russian’s propaganda idea of decadent and weak NATO. The real NATO is 3.5 million troops and equipment which actually works. Russians broadly announced finally taking Robotine, population pre-war 480 residents, 1.2 sq. miles area. Russian military is a joke (not a very funny one but still an attempt at humor). Finland or Poland alone would pulverize it.
Right now, in a conventional war, Russia (and Belarus, because let’s face it, it’s the same $h!t, just a different bucket) would have its arse handed to it by even a fraction of NATO’s military power. Europeans wouldn’t even need the US to help out.
Moreover, the enthusiasm with which NATO members would join that fight would be unprecedented. It would be a clear “good vs bad” war, which galvanises morale.
NATO F-35s, F-18, F-16, Dassault Rafales, Dassault Mirages, SAAB Gripens, and Eurofighter Typhoons would decimate the Russian Air Force, provide ground support, and conduct missions to destroy Russia’s ability to supply its troops or launch more missiles.
NATO Apaches and Tigers would provide ground support and make short work of Russian artillery and launchers.
NATO Leopards, Abrams, Challengers, LeClercs, and Arietes would – in a combined arms setup – annihilate Russian ground forces, although there’d always be material losses to drone warfare.
NATO artillery would wipe out entrenchments and fortified positions from a secure distance.
NATO special forces would engage Russia behind the lines and further disrupt Russian logistics.
NATO infantry would step in to secure the surrender of Russian and Belarussian troops and NOT to engage in trench warfare.
Poles, Baltics, Finns, Swedes, British, Dutch, Spaniards, French, Italians, and Czechs would go to town on that joke of a country. Other countries would also help out, but likely stay away from the front lines or be used in specialised roles.
The only difficulty for NATO would be to hold back the Poles and the Baltics who are probably amongst those who resent Russia the most. The Dutch also have a grudge they want to settle with Russia.
On a personal note, I would let Poland do whatever it wants to Russia, because Russia – led by Putin – is a cancer in the world. It normalises corruption and authoritarianism, and sets an example for other authoritarian regimes. This is the real threat to civilisation. I think Russia has produced great cultural landmarks in the past, but its mindset remains in the middle ages and medieval serfdom.
