I suspect that the US will end up in civil conflict. They may break apart, The average age of an empire is 250 years. So, unless Trump is successful in militarily locking down the US mainland, which would permit him to, as an Emperor, pass control down through his family, how else can it end? Americans should anticipate, in the next 14 months, that he will declare a national emergency and cancel any future elections. He’s following Hitler’s playbook, to a tee. #USDemocracyIsDead #USFascismLives

To be clear, you’re asking for whst we think will happen vs what we’d like to see happen. From that lens, I will tell you how I think it will go down.

Trump is not a well man. I actually think he is very much more ill than he will allow to be disclosed. He looks tired and his energy is very low. I don’t believe he will make it the midterm general election. He will pass in office.

The aftermath will be chaotic. Vance will take the oath, and Trump will receive all the traditional honors afforded Presidents when they die. The chaos will start a few months, perhaps less, after Vance is sworn in is when the chaos will start. You see, the MAGA portion of the Republican Party likes Trump and only Trump. Once he’s gone I don’t think they will fall in line behind Vance. They will fracture. There will be in-fighting. The technocrats, like Theil, will want Vance to choose a VP that suits their desires. The Heritage Foundation, I’m willing to bet they will push Vance to select someone from the Heritage Foundation (there are about nine of them in the Cabinet now). My guess is they’ll push for Stephen Miller. Regardless, they will not be able to unite what’s left of MAGA. They will lose enough seats to flip the House back to control of the Democrats because a lot of Republicans who believed Trump’s promises got burned. The Senate is a little more questionable but the margin of majority currently is very slim. I do believe the Senate will flip as well but not by a large margin.

Vance is not popular. He’s awkward. He’s smarmy. He’s over confident in the stupidity of the American populace. He thinks we’re all really stupid and that the MAGA base will support him. Some will. A large chunk will not. The magic of Trump will die with him. The hold Trump has on people that makes them wear diapers over their clothes and maxi pads on their ears will evaporate days after his funeral. Vance will not be able to unite the MAGA wing.

If both chambers of Congress flip, we will see with rapid speed investigations into a number of the Cabinet members. We’ll see some resignations. We may see some removals, Kennedy, Heggseth, Patel. To unite the party, Vance will have to make some concessions. The tariffs will end. The attacks on the First Amendment will end. Universities, law firms, media corps are not afraid of Vance.

I think that’s enough to give an idea. It’s how I think it will happen. It’s obviously just a prediction. People will disagree, others will agree.

Although it is popular on the left to suppose some sort of apocalypse leading to the Gilead of The Handmaid’s Tale, I suspect that the end will resemble something closer to T S Elliot’s “The waste Land” …

“This is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang, but with a whimper.”

In our case, we’ll all survive Trump. But those who had such high hopes for him, to accomplish some things that they could never, on the best of days, coherently describe, while whimper.

And then the adults will re-enter the room and do what they have always done in the past 40 years: sweep up the debris left by the Republicans, and — in the best sense of our oppressors of 250 years ago — mind the gap, and keep calm, and carry on.

The most formidable rebuke to MAGA world is that the tide of progress will wash over them, and that they will be nothing more than a footnote in the book of history.