Knowledge

The probability of being struck by lighting is 1 in a million. But have we ever observed a scientific event happening with an even lower probability?

First, I don’t know if the probability of being struck by lightning is exactly 1 in 1 million, but let’s say it is. Fine: that’s the probability of you being struck by lightning. When you consider that there are 8 billion (and growing) people on Earth, the worldwide probability that somebody will be struck by lightning is much, much higher.

Given enough chances to occur, even improbable events become commonplace.

But you wanted to know if we have observed scientific events with an even lower probability. Yes we have.

Neutrinos are subatomic particles that interact with matter so weakly that they could pass through a meter-thick wall of lead without breaking a sweat. In any given second, about 100 trillion neutrinos pass through your body, and you are completely unaware of it because the vast majority of them never interact with your atoms.

In fact, if you even want to detect a neutrino, it’s fiendishly difficult.

Behold the Super-Kamiokande neutrino detector, located about 1000 meters (3300 feet) underground near the city of Hida, Japan.

This dedicated neutrino detector was completed in 1996 and filled with 50,000 tons of pure water. The 13,000 photodetectors along the wall are meant to capture the fleeting evidence of neutrinos passing through the tank.

Remember when I said that about 100 trillion neutrinos pass through your body every second? How many neutrinos do you think pass through the Super-Kamiokande? I’ll give you a hint… it’s a lot more than 100 trillion.

And yet, the detector measures only about 30 neutrinos per day. Neutrinos are so difficult to detect that out of the untold zillions that pass through the detector in a 24-hour period, it only manages to snag a few dozen.

How’s that for rare?


Yes. Getting hit by a meteorite.

Most things that hit the atmosphere burn up on the way down, but it turns out that on a typical day about 17 are large enough to hit the ground. That’s far less than the number of lightning strikes in a day – about 8.6 million.

As such, in all of recorded history, only one person has ever been hit by a meteorite. Several have hit houses. One hit a car. One wiped out most of a forest in 1908 in Siberia, but killed no people. But only one has actually hit a person.

And that person survived. It just grazed her.

Now, about 65 million years ago, we got hit hard on the Yucatan peninsula and you can still see the crater. That probably killed a lot of animals, and eventually the resulting climate change killed huge numbers of species. But no people.

Related Posts

If an astronaut working on the International Space Station were somehow cut loose from his tether, would he fall back to Earth or orbit around it?

If an astronaut outside the ISS has his or her tether broken, they do not fall to the Earth. Before the tether was broken, the astronaut was in orbit at…

Escape velocity is supposed to be 24,000 mph, but our rockets never achieve this speed. How does that work?

Imagine you are sitting on a skateboard at the bottom of your drive and you need to get to the top. You could push off your garage door…

Can humans live on the side of a tidally-locked planet where neither day nor night exist?

Humans with their technology developed on Earth could live on a tidally locked planet where neither day nor night exists. We used to think that such planets become…

How did NASA make the shuttle safer after Columbia?

The problem was not just the piece of foam that struck the wing, it was a failure of imagination — NASA had seen foam fall before and decided…

Why do US Air Force fighters like the F-22 and F-15 place the engines right next to each other while Russian fighters like Su-27 always have a gap between the engines?

The United States has this thing where we learn from our mistakes. One of those mistakes was spacing twin engines as far apart as we did in the…

Is Mars too small to have a permanent atmosphere?

No, it is not. It used to have a thick atmosphere, perhaps thicker than Earth’s. It had that atmosphere for a couple of billion years and had oceans….